Tesla TSLA Q4 Could Stun Wall Street as Wedbush Forecasts 190-200K EV Deliveries

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Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) may not only achieve--but significantly surpass--Tesla's 2020 delivery target, Wedbush said. According to the firm's forecast, the company could deliver about 190,000 - 200,000 vehicles in Q4 2020.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives wrote in a memo to investors that Tesla could easily achieve its 2020 target, which Wall Street analysts did not expect in the spring and early summer of 2020. This will be possible thanks to the active development of Tesla in China, and the onslaught of deliveries in both Europe and the USA in the last quarter of the year.

"Based on our initial analysis of demand and the delivery trajectory globally for Tesla in 4Q, it appears Musk & Co. will likely handily exceed Street and internal expectations."

Wedbush expects Q4 deliveries to approach 190,000-200,000, the most daring forecast on Wall Street. Ives stresses that there was a strong change in demand for electric vehicles at the end of this year, which will continue to grow in 2021.

"Heading into year-end and 2021, we are seeing a major inflection of EV demand globally with our expectations that EV vehicles ramp from ~ 3% of total auto sales today to 10% by 2025."

The analyst reiterated that strong demand for electric vehicles would be particularly beneficial for Tesla in China, where the firm believes deliveries could account for ~40% of deliveries by 2022.

"We believe this demand dynamic will disproportionately benefit the clear EV category leader Tesla over the next few years especially in the key China region which we believe could represent ~40% of its EV deliveries by 2022 given the current brisk pace of sales."

Ives expects "eye-popping" demand from China in 2021 and 2022, as well as in other markets, citing Giga Shanghai as a major competitive advantage for Tesla. Wedbush believes that additional momentum can be gained in the form of increased EV credits under the administration of President-elect Joe Biden.

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