Tesla to Surpass 200,000 Deliveries in Q2 2021 per Wall Street Expectations

Photo: Tesla Zurich-delivery Center

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is likely to surpass 200,000 deliveries in Q2 2021, Wall Street analysts expect. The shortage of semiconductors no longer seems to be such a big problem, which Tesla proved in Q1, and the start of deliveries of Model S Plaid and Long Range will add several thousand to the total.

Today is the last day of Q2 and Tesla is actively working on deliveries so that as many customers as possible get their cars. Within 2-3 days, the company will publish a quarterly delivery report, which is a key moment for investors and will probably delight them. The consensus on Wall Street is that Tesla will deliver about 201,000 vehicles in Q2.

“We believe 200,000 is the line in the sand and right now it's biased upside given stronger Europe and China demand,” Wedbush analyst Dan Ives told Barron’s. He rates Tesla shares at Buy with a target of $1,000.

Credit Suisse analyst Dan Levy believes Tesla will report deliveries of 205,000 to 210,000 vehicles. “While our expectation would require a record month for Tesla in June…we believe this is feasible given Tesla’s typical quarter-end wave,” wrote Levy in the report. It takes into account the fact that Tesla usually delivers most of its vehicles in the last month of the quarter. Deliveries could reach 205,000 - 210,000 if the manufacturer delivers 115,000 vehicles in June. Levy rates Tesla shares at Hold, with a price target of $800.

Despite some headwinds, in the form of semiconductor shortages and late start of deliveries of the refreshed Model S and X, Tesla achieved impressive numbers in Q1 and delivered 185,000 vehicles. This includes only Model 3 and Y deliveries. However, in Q2 the company ramped up production capacity for Model 3 and Y as well as began delivering Model S Plaid and Long Range, which will also have a significant impact on the final delivery figures.

Despite his bearish sentiment and constant underestimation of Tesla, even GLJ analyst Gordon Johnson estimated the number of deliveries at about 193,000. He currently rates Tesla shares at Sell with a target price of $67. Johnson expects about 800,000 deliveries in 2021, while the Street expects them to range from 830,000 to 865,000.

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