Tesla to Overthrow Ford & GM in Revenue by 2027, Analyst Says

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Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) will overthrow Ford and GM in revenue by 2027, says Future Fund analyst. He models 2024 volume growth of 53% and EPS of 5.40 for Tesla, well above consensus.

Tesla is not a traditional automaker. Unlike competing companies, Tesla produces a wide range of products, from cars to factories. That is why it is wiser to consider the company in another area. Tesla bull, Future Fund's Gary Black once again stressed that the manufacturer should be valued as a technology company, not as a car manufacturer. He noted that the Tesla 2024 consensus forecasts are noticeably low and do not correspond to the real state of affairs.

Black said he expects Tesla's revenue to surpass that of Ford and General Motors by 2027. Wall Street expects Tesla's revenue to grow 24% a year between 2023 and 2027. Meanwhile, Ford and General Motors are likely to see revenue growth of 2% and 4% per annum, respectively, over the same timeframe.

2/ With +24% expected rev growth and +28% expected earnings growth, there’s no debate $TSLA should be valued more like a tech company rather than an auto company. Future expected growth rates drive P/Es — not the category in which one competes. @elonmusk

— Gary Black (@garyblack00) August 6, 2023

Black said Tesla's assessment of Wall Street is clearly wrong. Analysts do not take into account that the company will have a number of growth drivers in the future. He noted that Tesla is preparing to release an improved Model 3 Highland within the next few weeks. In addition, the launch of Cybertruck, an FSD Alpha V12 is approaching, offering level 4 autonomy, and a new $7,500 instant EV rebate in US for car purchases starting in 2024.

The analyst expects Tesla's 2024 sales growth to be 53%. This is almost double the Street’s growth forecast of 27%. He also said he expects 2024 earnings per share of $5.40, well above the consensus estimate of $4.70.

© 2023, Eva Fox | Tesmanian. All rights reserved.

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Eva Fox holds zero shares of Tesla, Inc., and currently (at the time of this article's publishing) holds zero options or securities in Tesla Inc. and/or its affiliates.