Tesla Suppliers Continue to Hint the EV Maker Plans to Produce 1M Vehicles in 2021

Photo: @bentv_sh/Twitter

Tesla's planned number of vehicles to be produced in 2021 is still undisclosed by the manufacturer. Regardless, reports from the company's suppliers indicate that Tesla is aiming to produce around one million vehicles.

Tesla's integrating SiC MOSFET based power modules supplier ST Microelectronics reports that its revenues this year will be well above $550 million. This will equate to approximately one million inverters that will be used in Tesla vehicles. ST Micro is Tesla's only supplier, so this information could reflect the real picture well.

$TSLA breaking: ST-micro SiC revenues this year will be $550m, vs. $450-500m expected only a few months ago. They are sole supplier to Tesla and Tesla is >>80% of their SiC. Tells you how confident Tesla is about this year. $550m SiC could well be 1m inverters!!

— Pierre Ferragu (@p_ferragu) April 29, 2021

In April, the chairman of China's reduction gear maker Hota, who is Tesla's supplier, said in a video that Tesla is aiming to produce one million vehicles in 2021. Another Tesla supplier Sysgration, which manufactures a Bluetooth Tire Pressure Monitoring System (TPMS), is also reporting a significant increase in the number of units ordered. The company received an order for four million Bluetooth TPMS for Model 3 and Model Y, which equates to approximately one million vehicles.

At the moment, there are only a few official, yet rather vague clues about the planned number of Tesla cars to be produced in 2021. During the Q4 2020 Earnings Call, Tesla CFO Zachary Kirkhorn said that the CAGR of volumes in 2021 will be 50%, and the company may significantly exceed this figure: "We continue to expect a long-term volume CAGR of 50%, of which we may materially exceed this in 2021." He stressed that the growth in production volumes will be especially noticeable in the second half of the year.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk also said that in 2021, the company could achieve growth of about 50% and this could be "meaningfully" above 50%. At the same time, he was clear that Tesla does not want to take on any obligations in delivery forecasts. "I think this year, we may track to a fair bit above 50%, but we don't want to commit to that, but at least that's what it would appear, and the same again next year. It appears to be meaningfully above 50%," he said.

According to data provided by Tesla in the Q1 2021 Earnings Report, the company has an installed capacity to produce more than one million units per year. At Fremont alone, Tesla can produce 100,000 units of Model S/X and 500,000 units of Model 3/Y. Of course, it should be kept in mind that the production of Model S/X is at an expansional stage and the full potential will only become available later this year. The Shanghai factory has an installed capacity to produce 450,000 units of Model 3/Y. It should also be noted that the installed capacity does not equate the current production rate of the factories. Production rate depends on many different factors such as factory ramp, supply chain ramp, downtime related to factory upgrades, national holidays, and other factors.

Despite the fact that Tesla does not want to take on any obligations in production/delivery forecasts, which is logical given the pressure that is generated by this, everything indicates that the manufacturer is aiming to produce and put on the roads about one million units in 2021. However, given the various factors that can have a significant impact on results, it should be understood that this goal is very optimistic.

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Article edited by @SmokeyShorts, you can follow him on Twitter

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